NSE Nifty 100 · since 2015 · stop-and-reverse, intraday

School Run & Advanced School Run - Backtest Analytics

A mechanical backtest of Tom Hougaard's School Run (15-min, 2nd bar) and Advanced School Run (5-min, 4th bar) across all 100 NSE Nifty 100 stocks, adapted to the Indian market open (09:15 IST). Explore leaderboards, risk-adjusted stats, and a portfolio view for any calendar year, financial year, or custom date range.

Research and educational use only. A mechanical interpretation of published rules; not financial advice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Strategy credit: Tom Hougaard (tradertom.com).

The strategies

School Run (SRS)

  • 15-minute chart; signal = 2nd candle (09:30-09:45).
  • Buy above its high + buffer, sell below its low − buffer.
  • Stop = opposite level (stop-and-reverse); no target.
  • Intraday only; squared off at the close.

Advanced School Run (ASRS)

  • 5-minute chart; signal = 4th candle (09:30-09:35).
  • 5th-bar fallback when the signal bar is too tight.
  • Same buffer, stop-and-reverse, no target.
  • Entries in the first 2 hours; squared off at the close.

Method & metric notes

Learn: how to trade it

A plain-English walkthrough for newcomers, with real dated examples from this dataset (RELIANCE, Advanced School Run, 5-min). The School Run works identically on the 15-min 2nd bar. The charts below are the actual 5-minute candles of each day.

1. The core mechanics

1
Wait for the signal bar. Do nothing at the open. For the Advanced School Run, let the first four 5-minute candles form and watch the 4th candle (09:30-09:45 closes the 4th 5-min bar; 09:30-09:35 is the bar itself). For the original School Run, it's the 2nd 15-minute candle (09:30-09:45).
2
Mark its high and low. These two prices define the day's breakout box.
3
Place two stop orders with a small buffer. Buy-stop just above the high, sell-stop just below the low. Tom uses ~2 points on the DAX; here we use a tiny % of price as the buffer to avoid being triggered by the spread.
4
Your stop is the opposite order (stop-and-reverse). If the buy fills and price falls back through the sell level, you're stopped out and flipped short at that same price. There is no profit target - you let the winner run.
5
Square off at the close. It's an intraday method. Nothing is held overnight; every morning is a fresh start.
6
Cap your attempts. On choppy days the reverse can trigger repeatedly. Decide in advance how many times you'll re-enter (this backtest caps it at 4) and walk away after that.

2. The four trade-day scenarios

Clean breakout

RELIANCE · 6 Jan 2021. The 4th bar ran 932.05 high / 929.75 low. Price broke down through the sell level and trended all day, one trade, no fuss.

Signal bar H/L932.05 / 929.75
Sell / Buy levels929.56 / 932.24
FilledShort @ 929.56
ResultRan to 912.90 at close · +1.74%

The dream day: enter once, sit on your hands, let it run to the close.

Whipsaw

RELIANCE · 29 Jan 2021. A tight, overlapping range. Price kept poking through both levels, triggering the reverse again and again: four trades, all small losers.

Signal bar H/L900.70 / 896.30
Sell / Buy levels896.12 / 900.88
Sequenceshort → long → short → long
Result4 small losses · −2.32%

Unavoidable and normal. This is exactly why you cap re-entries and keep each loss tiny.

Small range → use the 5th bar

RELIANCE · 24 Jun 2021. The 4th bar was too small/indecisive, so the rule says wait one more and use the 5th candle (09:35-09:40) to set the levels instead.

5th bar H/L1050.40 / 1048.20
Sell / Buy levels1047.99 / 1050.61
FilledShort @ 1047.99
ResultRan to 1023.50 at close · +2.29%

When the signal bar is a tiny doji, the next bar often gives a cleaner, more committed level.

Gap through the level

RELIANCE · 10 Mar 2021. Price jumped straight past the sell level instead of touching it, so the fill happens at the opening price of that candle, not the level, a worse entry than planned.

Signal bar H/L1050.20 / 1046.20
Sell level1045.99
FilledShort @ 1045.90 (gap-down open)
ResultDrifted to 1038.50 · +0.66%

Gaps cut both ways: account for slippage on the entry and especially on the stop side.

3. Risk & psychology - the hard part

  • Size so a loss doesn't hurt. Risk a small, fixed fraction of capital per trade. The stop distance is known the moment the signal bar closes (it's the range + buffers), so size from that.
  • A low win rate is normal - and fine. Across this dataset win rates sit around 28-38%, yet most stocks are net profitable. You will be wrong more often than right.
  • Let winners run, cut losers fast. The entire edge is a few large winners paying for many small losses (look at the P&L distribution's long right tail). Moving a stop to break-even too early kills the runners that make the method work.
  • Best Loser Wins. Tom's core idea: the trader who accepts small losses without hesitation, and holds winners without flinching, beats the one who needs to be right. The rules are easy; the temperament is the skill.
  • Pre-commit and walk away. Set your levels and max re-entries before the open, execute them mechanically, and stop for the day once you hit your cap.

4. Picking stocks & timing

  • Volatility is the fuel. Breakouts need range to run. The strongest results here are in higher-beta names (e.g. Adani Power) and in volatile years - use the period selector to compare a calm year with a turbulent one.
  • Use the leaderboard to shortlist. Favour names with a higher profit factor and a drawdown you could actually stomach - a huge return with a 100%+ drawdown is untradeable in practice.
  • Check consistency, not just the total. Switch the period between individual years: an edge that only shows up in one wild year is fragile. Look for names that work across many years.
  • Trade the window you can focus on. Tom does his setups in the first ~2 hours. Concentrate your attention there rather than drifting through the whole session.
  • Don't over-fit. These are gross-of-most-costs, mechanical results. Add realistic slippage, paper-trade first, and treat the stats as a guide to behaviour, not a promise of returns.

Leaderboard (full history)

Click a row for period analytics.

Analytics

Per-stock analytics

Select a stock in the leaderboard above to see period analytics.

Portfolio view (all 100 stocks, equal weight)

Aggregates every stock's signals for the selected period. Loads ~18 MB of trade data the first time (cached after).

Frequently asked questions

What is the School Run strategy?

The School Run is an intraday breakout strategy created by trader Tom Hougaard. On the 15-minute chart you take the 2nd candle of the session, then buy a few ticks above its high or sell a few ticks below its low. The stop is the opposite level, so a stopped long flips into a short (stop-and-reverse), and there is no fixed profit target. Positions are closed at the end of the day.

What is the Advanced School Run strategy?

The Advanced School Run (ASRS) is Tom Hougaard's faster variant on the 5-minute chart. It uses the 4th 5-minute candle of the session as the signal bar, with a fallback to the 5th candle when the 4th has a very small range. Entry, buffer, stop-and-reverse and end-of-day square-off all work the same as the original School Run.

How does the School Run apply to Indian NSE stocks?

The NSE equity market opens at 09:15 IST, so the School Run signal bar is the 09:30 to 09:45 15-minute candle and the Advanced School Run signal bar is the 09:30 to 09:35 5-minute candle. This site backtests both on all 100 Nifty 100 stocks using historical data since 2015.

Is the School Run strategy profitable?

In this 2015-to-present backtest, win rates were low (about 38% for the School Run and about 28% for the Advanced School Run), yet roughly 69 to 71 of the 100 stocks were net positive because a few large winners outweighed many small losses. These are mechanical, mostly-gross results for research only and are not a promise of future returns.

What is the difference between School Run and Advanced School Run?

The School Run is simpler and slower: it uses the 2nd 15-minute bar and trades less often. The Advanced School Run uses the 4th 5-minute bar, trades more frequently, reacts faster, and tends to have a lower win rate but more opportunities. The exit logic is identical for both.

What is stop-and-reverse?

Stop-and-reverse means your protective stop is also your entry in the opposite direction. If you are long and price falls back through the sell level, you are stopped out and simultaneously filled short at that same level. It keeps you in the trade the market is actually offering.

Who created the School Run strategy?

The School Run and Advanced School Run were developed by Tom Hougaard, a professional trader and author of "Best Loser Wins", primarily for index trading on the DAX. This project adapts the published rules to NSE Nifty 100 stocks.